Welcome to Wildlife Works’ new newsletter, Valuing the Priceless: Market Insights for Carbon and Biodiversity. The name reflects our core belief: biodiversity and carbon-rich forests are priceless. Yet, without a market-driven mechanism to recognize their value, these critical ecosystems remain at risk. We believe that the sheer scale of the marketplace dwarfs charitable donations, so charity cannot repair what the marketplace continues to destroy. We believe that the marketplace is not inherently evil, and we can choose responsible commerce to direct the power of the marketplace to help solve problems rather than create them. Through this newsletter, we’ll provide key biodiversity and carbon market updates from a leading project developer’s perspective.
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To commemorate the International Day of Forests, a panel of experts from Nature Kenya, Natural State, and Wildlife Works will host a webinar on Thursday March 20th. These leading scientists and policy experts will explore the vital link between forests and food security, discussing how diverse ecosystems support community sustenance and resilience against climate change.
Join us for an engaging and informative discussion where participants will gain a deeper understanding of sustainable practices necessary for harmonious coexistence with nature, benefiting current and future generations.
Data Dive: Carbon and Biodiversity Market Updates
The voluntary carbon market (VCM) continues to evolve, with recent 2024 data shedding light on shifting supply and demand dynamics. Here’s what stood out from the latest reports to us:
📉 Issuances Hit a Four-Year Low
New credit issuances fell sharply in 2024, reaching their lowest levels since 2020. Compared to the record highs of 2021, forestry and renewable energy credits saw the biggest declines—down 56% and 40%, respectively. The total supply of non-retired credits now sits at roughly one billion.
🔍 Why the Drop?
Much of this slowdown can be attributed to uncertainty and delays in the REDD+ sector, particularly as Verra worked to finalize its consolidated methodology.
📈 Retirements at an All-Time High
On the flip side, credit retirements hit record levels in 2024. Over half of these retirements came from credits issued in the last five years, signaling a preference for newer vintages.
🌱 The Rise of Removals
A notable trend: demand for carbon removal projects surged, with retirements outpacing issuances by 10 million credits. This signals strong buyer interest, but scrutiny around the integrity of removals is also intensifying.
🌎 Big Moves in REDD+
Guyana recently verified 7.1 million REDD+ credits through ART, effectively doubling the supply of CORSIA-eligible credits in the market. However, supply remains far below projected demand. As more project developers receive Letters of Authorization from host countries—a key requirement for CORSIA eligibility—expect availability to increase in the coming years.
Looking Ahead
While the VCM faced supply-side headwinds in 2024, demand remains strong—particularly for high-quality credits. With new methodologies such as VM48, the Baseline Allocation for Assessed Risk (BAAR) and new standards such as Equitable Earth taking shape, we anticipate a more dynamic market in the months ahead.
Article 6 frameworks under the Paris Agreement are also advancing, with important decisions made at COP 29 regarding international registries, standard processes for carbon accounting between countries, and operationalization of the 6.4 market mechanism. These developments will enhance transparency, reduce barriers to entry, and build confidence among investors.
Ghana is emerging as an early mover in Article 6 carbon trading, with a recent release of 5.2 million tCO₂e in authorized credits and three active projects focused on sustainable rice cultivation, waste-to-compost, and clean cookstoves. With 24 million tCO₂ allocated for future trading, Ghana’s proactive approach signals growing interest in compliance-grade credits. The country has also signed cooperation agreements with Switzerland, Sweden, and Singapore, demonstrating how developing nations can leverage carbon finance to drive sustainable development. These kinds of agreements have involved the work of private developers, and build on methodologies from the voluntary market. As more governments establish the required frameworks for Article 6 participation, Wildlife Works is well positioned to lend its expertise and experience in the REDD+ sector.
The Growing Biodiversity Market
As attention on nature-based solutions expands, biodiversity credits are emerging as a parallel market to carbon credits. According to data from Bloom Labs, reported on by CarbonPulse, in 2024 voluntary biodiversity credit sales quintupled to $5.6 million. Many biodiversity credits were not standalone but bundled with carbon credits or other ecosystem services. Here are the reports high level takeaways:
🌿 Market Highlights
The Pacific Island nation of Niue led the market, selling over $2.5 million in oceanic biodiversity credits.
New Zealand’s Toha Network and Australia’s Wilderlands also made significant sales, indicating that Oceania is an early leader in this space.
Recorded sales transactions include complete sales as well as pilot investments, pre-purchases, or commitments to purchase.
📊 Who’s Buying?
The majority of buyers were small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which made up 80% of purchases.
Only 10% of buyers came from non-Western countries (Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil), suggesting a still Western-dominated market.
Interestingly, while most buyers were for-profit companies, philanthropic motivations—rather than regulatory obligations—were the primary driver of demand.
🚧 Challenges to Market Growth
Despite recent momentum, the biodiversity credit market remains unstructured with a lack of standardization and unclear corporate use cases. Unlike carbon markets, where the mechanism for offsetting is well understood, companies purchasing biodiversity credits have yet to make clear claims about their impact.
However, experts believe that early voluntary credit pilots will help shape future compliance biodiversity markets, similar to how the voluntary carbon market laid the groundwork for Article 6.
In contrast to biodiversity credits that pay to increase biodiversity in an area, the Yawanawa’s methodology for Biodiversity Stewardship Units (BDSUs) pay Indigenous People for conserving their intact forests and biodiversity by practicing their traditional way of life.
BDSUs offer corporations a measurable tool to invest in a nature-positive future, inline with the targets set by the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.
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